Bolstered by decent reviews and a good franchise track record at the box office regardless of critical reception, Disney and Pixar‘s Cars 3 is set to take the lead over Warner Brothers and DC Entertainment’s Wonder Woman, which is expected to have another strong hold this weekend.
Deadline is reporting weekend projections for newcomers Cars 3, All Eyez On Me, Rough Night, and 47 Meters Down, and holdovers Wonder Woman and The Mummy. Easily taking the lead will be new release Cars 3, which is expected to snag upwards of $50M and possibly more than $60M. Cars is a huge moneymaker for Pixar when it comes to merchandise, and the movie should perform well both domestically and abroad. As such, the third installment for one of Pixar’s less popular franchises should still come ahead of Wonder Woman even if that movie manages to outperform expectations for the weekend.
Speaking of Wonder Woman, the Amazon continues to prove that she’s unstoppable as a third-week drop of 40% is expected after last week held significantly better than expectations, which translates to about a $35.1M weekend. If the movie’s continues to perform on this trajectory, then the movie will end the weekend above $270M, which would be about 3% ahead of where Suicide Squad was at the same time in its performance last year. With this in mind, not only is it likely that Wonder Woman will surpass the DCEU franchise-starter Man of Steel at the domestic and worldwide box office, but the movie may also surpass Suicide Squad‘s respective run as well.
From there, it’s not clear who will take the respective #3 and #4 slots, as the The Mummy is expected to be cursed with a 60% drop at the box office due to poor critical reception and lukewarm word-of-mouth (which, in a best-case scenario, could result in a $12.7M weekend), leaving Universal’s planned Dark Universe slate in an incredibly uncertain place. Indeed, it looks like Universal is going to have to hope for a continued strong performance internationally to make a profit off of the film. Meanwhile, the Tupac biopic All Eyez On Me could prove to be a sleeper hit – while it likely won’t make Straight Outta Compton numbers, the film is currently expected to make $15M to $22M.
Coming in #5 should be Rough Night, which is looking to live up to its name with a $10M to $12M opening, although other sources are reporting that the opening could be better with a performance closer in line with a $15M to $17M opening weekend. If The Mummy gets buried and All Eyez On Me performs on the low end of expectations, then it could possibly open as high as #3 for the weekend. Likewise, the expected #6 for the weekend – 47 Meters Down – is looking to be underwater at the box office with an opening in the single-digit million; a $10M performance is being seen as a the best-case scenario outcome for the studio. The only good news is that the movie probably wasn’t that expensive to make, meaning that a few million should be all it needs to profit in its entire run.