Spider-Man: Homecoming is one of this year’s most highly-anticipated releases, and as such it’s looking to target one of the biggest July openings ever with a 3-day opening estimated to be in the $100M-$120M+ range.
Deadline is reporting that Homcoming is looking at a number of tracking projections from a wide variety of sources. Sony’s internal tracking are placing the project at an incredibly conservative $80M+, whereas industry estimates range from a minimum of $90M to a high of over $120M. In any case, Deadline themselves believe that it’s safe to say that Homecoming will make over $100M in its first weekend, with similar interest from the audience demographics that made Iron Man 3 a hit.
Should it meet the high end of expectations, Spider-Man: Homecoming would snatch the fifth-biggest opening for a July movie from Minions ($115.7M), and only lag behind mega-hits like Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest ($135.6M), The Dark Knight ($158.4M), The Dark Knight Rises ($160.9M), and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 ($169.2M). In comparison to other Spider-Man films, Homecoming‘s opening weekend is looking to be better than The Amazing Spider-Man ($62M), Spider-Man 2 ($88.2M), and The Amazing Spider-Man 2 ($91.6M). While it most likely won’t be topping the opening weekend of Spider-Man 3 ($151.1M), the movie has a shot at outdoing the opening weekend of the original Spider-Man ($114.8M).
Of course, there’s a lot more to a movie’s performance than the opening weekend, as both Spider-Man 3 and The Amazing Spider-Man 2 had strong openings but weak legs compared to the other movies in the franchise. If Homecoming‘s legs are strong enough, it can cruise past the $300M domestic mark since the first time that Sam Raimi directed one of these movies. Thankfully, with a strong social media presence and some of the best reviews for a Spider-Man movie in the franchise since Raimi’s second, the wind is definitely at this Homecoming‘s back to have good legs at the box office, even when faced with competition like War for the Planet of the Apes and Dunkirk.
Spider-Man: Homecoming swings into theaters on July 7, 2017. The film features a cast that includes Tom Holland as Peter Parker (Spider-Man), Robert Downey Junior as Tony Stark (Iron Man), Zendaya Coleman as Michelle, Jacob Batalon as Ned Leeds, Tony Revolori as “Flash” Thompson, Laura Harrier as Liz Allan, Marisa Tomei as May Parker, Jon Favreau as Harold “Happy” Hogan, Michael Keaton as Adrian Toomes (Vulture), Bokeem Woodbine as Herman Schultz (Shocker), and Michael Chernus as Phineas Mason (Tinkerer).